The third quarter is crucial because it brings 64% of the total tourist traffic

first_imgAccording to the eVisitor system, in the commercial and non-commercial segment and nautical charter, in Croatia during the first three months 635.000 arrivals (-33%) and 1.893.500 overnight stays (-20%) were realized, while in March realized 118.236 arrivals (-75%) and 518.530 overnight stays (-53%). And currently there is no tourist traffic. The problem will be much more visible in the second, and will be especially emphasized in the third quarter, when about 64% of the total annual foreign exchange tourist revenues are realized. The second quarter has certainly been completely lost (this would be, according to data for the second quarter of last year, 2,3 billion euros of “lost” foreign exchange income from tourism), and for the most important third (when 6,6 billion euros of revenue was generated last year) ) the severity of the fall remains uncertain.  On the other hand, optimistic estimates of the World Tourism Organization show a reduction of tourist arrivals by 20 to 30%, and foreign exchange earnings by a third (but as these data from March 26, ie now two weeks old, new estimates are likely to be more drastic ). These estimates are still much more drastic than the impact of the financial crisis on the decline in global tourism in 2009 (only 4% in arrivals) or the SARS epidemic in 2003 (a decrease in the number of arrivals of only 0,3%).  So now is the time to prepare a new strategy and mostly prepare promotional campaigns for the day after the coronavirus. Then the most important thing will be to react immediately and aggressively promote tourism, ie the entire offer, in order to activate tourism as soon as possible. So, prepare a campaign and keep them on Stand by. And the main focus will be on the domestic guest. For now, there are too many unknowns and assumptions, so in a time where the situation is changing day by day, it is very difficult to predict anything, and therefore be optimistic. But hope dies last. Realistically, according to the current situation, we can expect tourist activity only in the spring of 2021, and of course not in the same numbers as before. And as for this year, we can optimistically hope that we will still (assuming that the situation in Croatia and Europe calms down, ie the coronavirus disappears) catch the second part of the peak season, mainly through domestic guests and a small part of guests from Austria and Slovenia, in order for tourism to get at least a little “cash flow”. This is not yet a major problem for the balance of payments, as very little income from foreign tourism was generated in the first quarter (only about 4,5% of total annual revenue, EUR 486,2 million last year). The third quarter is important Although tourism has always recovered very quickly, unfortunately, this blow will already shake the entire tourism sector, and recovery is expected in the next 2-3 years. In Croatia, the annual decline in 2009 was also mild: in foreign tourist arrivals below one percent, and in foreign exchange income from tourism by only 14%. The difference between these two crises can already be seen in March, when, according to eVisitor data, a drastic annual decline in arrivals (-80,3%) and overnight stays (-64,5%) of foreign tourists was visible, and cumulatively in the first quarter (-41,3% in arrivals and -27,2% in overnight stays of foreign tourists). last_img read more